Selected assessments and analytical notes from our team — published for government and NGO audiences navigating a complex geopolitical environment.
An assessment of how recent executive actions are reshaping the operational environment for allied governments and multilateral institutions. We examine the legal architecture of executive foreign policy authority, recent precedents, and the implications for treaty obligations and bilateral agreements.
Analysis of evolving security partnerships and economic diversification strategies across the Gulf Cooperation Council. We assess the durability of hedging strategies and the conditions under which Gulf states may be forced to make harder alignment choices.
A structural assessment of governance and institutional risk in post-conflict reconstruction environments, with particular attention to aid dependency cycles, elite capture, and the conditions for sustainable state-building.
An examination of the structural drivers behind the recent wave of military takeovers in West and Central Africa, and an assessment of whether international conditionality frameworks retain any meaningful deterrent effect.
An analysis of the evolving tension between congressional sanctions mandates and executive branch flexibility, and the implications for allied governments and international organizations that rely on U.S. sanctions as a policy instrument.
A structured framework for monitoring escalation risk in the Taiwan Strait, identifying the key political, military, and economic indicators that would signal a meaningful shift in the probability of coercive action.
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